Power battery four giants fight cost Tesla lowest Ningde era highest
The local power battery giants such as Ningde era and BYD are expanding rapidly, which further strengthens the industry concentration.
Local power battery giants such as Ningde Era (300750.SZ) and BYD (002594.SZ) are rapidly expanding, which further strengthens industry concentration. In order to speed up the popularization and promotion of new energy vehicles, as the power battery of the new energy vehicle "heart", its price is imperative. In the Ningde era, BYD wants to reduce the pressure caused by the decline in the price of power batteries by upgrading technology and scale. .
Industry concentration is intensifying
In the first three quarters of 2018, the total installed capacity of China's new energy vehicle power batteries was about 28.7GWh, ranking first in the Ningde era, with a market share of 42%. In the first three quarters of this year, Ningde achieved revenue of 19.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.85%; deducted non-net profit of 1.985 billion yuan, an increase of 88.71%. Ningde era said that revenue growth was mainly due to the growth of the new energy vehicle market and the company's market share.
BYD ranked second with a 27.76% share. Tianjin Lishen, Fu Neng Technology and BAK Battery are ranked three to five. The above five companies together accounted for 81.43% of the total installed capacity, and the concentration of China's new energy power battery industry was further strengthened.
A few happy families. In addition to the head company, many other companies in power batteries are facing difficulties. The first three quarters of Chengfei Integration (002190.SZ) suffered a loss of RMB 9,917,200, a decrease of 1214.46% from the same period of the previous year. Jianrui Wooneng (300116.SZ) lost 2.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 487.28% year-on-year, and achieved revenue of 3.539 billion yuan, down 58.88% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of the lion technology (002684.SZ), revenue decreased by 53.82% year-on-year, and the cost increased significantly, which brought the company a net loss of 587 million yuan. The performance forecast shows that the company will lose 1 billion to 1.4 billion yuan in the whole year.
Competition in the power battery industry is still growing, adding some new players. On August 3, 2018, China Vision Group announced the acquisition of Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "AESC"), a power battery business of Nissan Motors. "We have always wanted to incorporate electric vehicles into the future energy system." For the motives of the huge cross-border acquisition of Nissan's battery business, the CEO of Vision Group Zhang Lei told the First Financial Reporter that the vision is to set up a factory in Jiangyin, Wuxi. This reduces the cost of the AESC lithium-ion battery.
After holding the Guanzhi, Baoneng also accelerated its entry speed in the field of new energy vehicles. On November 19th, Shenzhen Hongpeng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was incorporated with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. Baoneng Investment Group Co., Ltd. subscribed for 2.97 billion yuan, accounting for 99% of the company's shares. Baoneng Group's holding company Shenzhen Baoneng Logistics Co., Ltd. subscribed for 0.3 billion yuan and held 1% of the shares. Hong Peng New Energy's business scope includes lithium-ion batteries, battery materials, and power batteries.
According to the new research report of Guojin Securities, China's leading power battery companies are deep-binding vehicle companies through technology upgrades and joint ventures to expand orders and market share. Some companies are gradually withdrawing from the market.
As an industry representative, Ningde era has been a global champion in power battery shipments through technology upgrades, cooperation and joint ventures. Zeng Yiqun, founder and chairman of Ningde Times, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that it was the cooperation between the early stage and BMW that led to the rapid development of the Ningde era.
At present, in the four most prestigious cities of domestic pure electric vehicles, the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in addition to Shenzhen, where the headquarters of BYD is located, the Ningde era and the other three cities have achieved strong cooperation with local strong vehicle companies. In Beijing, as a supplier of BAIC New Energy, the share of Pride established by Ningde Times and BAIC Group is very stable; in Shanghai, the cooperation between Ningde and SAIC began with the Roewe eRX5 model. At present, SAIC has launched the Roewe eRX5. Many new energy vehicles such as Chase FCV80 fuel cell light passengers have adopted batteries from Ningde era; in Guangzhou, Ningde era and Guangzhou Automobile Group set up two joint ventures in the field of power batteries. GAC New Energy debuted at the 2018 Guangzhou Auto Show just held. Both the GAC and GS4PHEV new energy vehicles use the battery technology of Ningde era.
"The big integration will become the general trend. This is the inevitable law of the development of the manufacturing industry. It will also be reflected in the domestic power battery field." Yin Chengliang, director of the Automotive Energy Technology Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, told the First Financial Reporter that the industry concentration will be improved. The general trend, but the Ningde era and BYD, the two routes are different, and the gap is very large.
In Yin Chengliang's view, the Ningde era has established a joint venture with the strength of the whole vehicle company, and adopted a cooperation model to grab a considerable share. To sum up, this is a core component field that is needed in the national industry. Through several aspects of cooperation, we will cultivate the thinking of suppliers and concentrate on building a strong supplier.
Yin Chengliang pointed out that BYD's power battery is as successful as its new energy models such as Qin and Tang, but its business model can be improved in the future. In Yin Chengliang's view, BYD can make the battery business more independent and allow other capital to enter. The total plate of BYD's battery business is expected to be even bigger.
Faced with price cuts
In the global power battery industry, even the Chinese industry leader Ningde era did not take advantage of the price.
Swiss Union Bank (UBS) recently tested the batteries of Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and Ningde Times. The cost of Panasonic batteries produced by the TSLA Super Factory is 0.11 US dollars / watt-hour (about 0.76 yuan / Was time, far lower than the other three competitors, and the battery cost of the Ningde era is about 0.15 US dollars / watt hour (about 1.03 yuan / watt hour), the highest cost among the four companies. UBS expects the four battery manufacturers to have a 70% market share by 2025, and battery costs will fall by about 10% in the next two to three years.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said that Tesla has made breakthroughs in energy density and battery composition, and is expected to achieve 0.1 US dollars / watt hour before the end of the year (about 0.69 yuan / Battery time target for watthours.
Korean LG Chem, Samsung SDI and others all have exclusive core technologies, and have now built a complete business system from battery cells to battery packs. “The cost of raw material procurement and production process control are lower than ours, and the automation of the production process is high. From the perspective of mass production, the production cost of Korean is indeed lower than ours.” China North Vehicle Research Institute Power Battery Experiment Wang Zi, director of the room and director of the National 863 Electric Vehicle Major Power Battery Test Center.
Ouyang Minggao, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, said that the average cost of batteries in China, the United States and Europe is 1 yuan / watt hour, 0.1 US dollars / watt hour (about 0.69 yuan / watt hour) and 0.1 euro. / watt-hour (about RMB 0.78 / watt-hour), horizontal comparison, the price of Chinese enterprises above 1 yuan / watt hour is higher, the future ideal target should be 0.1 US dollars / watt-hour.
Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project Team, also believes that by 2020, electric vehicles will have the competitiveness of traditional vehicles only when the battery cost is 0.6 yuan/kWh and below without subsidies.
On the other hand, some media have previously quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the average subsidy for electric vehicles in China in 2019 may be reduced by more than 30% compared with 2018. At the same time, the threshold for subsidies for electric vehicles will rise to 200 kilometers. In this regard, Ernst & Young partner, automotive industry analyst Ye Liang told the First Financial Reporter that the power battery is an important supporting component of the main engine factory. The supply of the talks for several years will not be affected by the fluctuations. However, next year's domestic power battery should reduce costs and increase cruising range according to the new policy.
"The cost of China's power battery companies has room to fall, and the cost of lithium batteries will become cheaper and cheaper." Yin Chengliang said optimistically.
At present, the Ningde era has announced that it will continue to increase investment in research and development and accelerate the pace of development. By 2020, the energy density of power batteries exceeds 300 Wh/kg, and the cost is reduced by half. In addition, large-scale standardized production is one of the effective ways to achieve cost control before there is no major breakthrough in battery technology. Domestic Ningde era, BYD and other power battery companies are actively expanding production capacity. BYD's power battery has been opened to the public this year, and together with Changan and other vehicle companies to expand the production scale of power batteries and upgrade technology.