Lithium battery industry welcomes a new round of deep reshuffle Experts: cost to survive
"The production capacity and creativity of our Chinese companies can never be underestimated." The founder of the battery network Yu Qingjiao believes that China is now moving from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power", which is for the new energy vehicle and battery industry chain. It is the best opportunity for development.
ABEC 2018 | The 6th Lithium Power "Davos" Forum Site
"Securities Daily" reporters looked through the three quarterly reports of listed companies in the lithium industry. In the first three quarters, the company's accumulated revenues reached 149.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.28%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 19.025 billion yuan. Since this year, lithium-ion companies have generally high revenues, low profits, and high receivables. Many companies have slowed down their performance and even suffered losses.
In this regard, Nie Shaoyong, deputy general manager of Chery New Energy and dean of the institute, believes that if the battery cost does not fall by 50%, the entire industry will not survive. "In the next year or two, state subsidies will eventually disappear, and the era of easy gold mining in the lithium industry will never return."
Liang Rui, vice president of Xinwangda and president of the power battery sector, expressed the same view. "The current TOP10 enterprise market share has further increased, and other power battery companies in addition have only about 13% of the market demand. In the future, power battery companies will only be out if they do not have the cost competitive advantage.
Lithium battery reduction will be more than half of the industry
"Securities Daily" noted that due to the high industry attention and capital concentration of the lithium battery industry, the latecomers are still eager to try. However, in Ni Shaoyong's view, the application of power battery materials has been under the pressure of indulgence, and cost reduction and efficiency increase are imminent.
In fact, this year, the new energy industry officially entered the post-subsidy era. With the double-points policy taking over, the capital winter has gradually spread to the new energy manufacturing industry. Lithium-ion enterprises are facing unprecedented pressures in various aspects such as capital, technology and market. The deep reshuffle of the whole industry has started, and the stock prices of listed companies in the industry have fallen, profits. Compression; a number of new three-board lithium-ion companies sprint IPOs have lost, more and more industry out.
In addition, the cathode material is subject to fluctuations in resource prices such as cobalt and lithium, limited profitability, and technical upgrading and transformation; the anode material enterprises are generally small in volume, raw material price fluctuations have a greater impact on performance, and the application of silicon-carbon anodes is less than expected; Excessive electrolyte capacity and low profit margins are unsustainable.
"Currently, many of the materials for ternary batteries are distributed abroad, and many are monopolized by international giants." In addition, the requirements for power batteries for the entire vehicle are constantly increasing, and the requirements for battery power, economy, safety, reliability, and convenience of charging are constantly increasing, Ni Shaoyong said.
The reporter learned that the current domestic power battery market is highly concentrated. The battery materials used in the top 10 power battery companies are concentrated in ternary, lithium iron phosphate and multi-composite, while the current ternary and lithium iron phosphate are the majority. The material chosen by the company. In this regard, Ni Shaoyong expects that in the future, due to the energy density of the battery, the ternary ratio will rise rapidly and the growth of lithium iron phosphate will slow down.
When talking about the cost of power batteries after the cancellation of subsidies, Ni Shaoyong believes that without subsidies, it is necessary to reduce the cost by 40%-50% or more. “That is to say, if the cost of the battery does not fall by 50%, the whole industry will not survive.” He said that in the next one or two years, the state subsidies will eventually be gone, and the era of easy gold mining in the lithium industry will never return. . "We will eventually face cruel market competition and face the end user's vote. If we can't do the best, the end user will vote with the foot."
Liang Rui also expressed the same view. “Other than the TOP10 companies, the total power battery companies only have about 13% of the market demand, but they account for about 55% of the total industry capacity, and most of them are low-end capacity, and their capacity utilization rate is only about 10%, which lowered the industry capacity utilization index."
Liang Rui believes that under the "double attack" of upstream raw material price increases and downstream price cuts, power battery companies will only be out if they do not have the cost competitive advantage.
Japan and South Korea injected capital to prepare for the 2020 power battery competition to enter the countdown
With the approach of 2020 and the acceleration of subsidies, together with the “Guidance Catalogue for Foreign Investment Industries” jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, foreign investors are encouraged to invest in power batteries, and the competition in the power battery market will undoubtedly be upgraded again. China's open auto industry is attracting multinational companies such as Tesla, BMW, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, and SK to increase investment in new energy vehicles and battery industry chains in China and accelerate production expansion.
At the same time, in the new round of industry reshuffle and deep competition, localization and scale are all accelerating. More and more domestic new energy battery industry chain enterprises have opened up their global strategic layout, the export ratio has increased, and exchange gains and losses have increased. Customers and markets at home and abroad have achieved remarkable results and become a multinational giant supply chain.
"The production capacity and creativity of our Chinese companies can never be underestimated." The founder of China Battery Network, Yu Qingjiao believes that China is now moving from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power", which is for the new energy vehicle and battery industry chain. Said to be the best development opportunity.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, believes that the development of new energy vehicles, especially passenger cars, has entered a super-fast development, breaking through the scale of 100,000 units and driving the development of new energy vehicles. effect.
Cui Dongshu expects that new energy vehicles will reach 1.2 million units this year and reach 1.6 million units next year. "The main consideration is the growth point or the development of passenger cars. There is better room for both pure electric and plug-in hybrids, but next year, plug-in hybrids will have a better driving force for development. Under this kind of promotion, if this year It will reach a scale of 1.1 million units to 1.2 million units, and will reach 160 scales next year. The goal of 2 million in 2020 is relatively easy to achieve.” Cui Dongshu said.
Mo Ke, founder of Zhen Li Research, said that the changes in global economic and trade forms and the increasingly fierce and cruel competition in the big countries behind it will push the Chinese government to increase the development of strategic emerging industries such as electric vehicles and do their utmost to reduce the traditional The dependence of energy and oil, at the same time, the traditional industry will obviously go downhill, and will force many enterprises and capital to develop strategic emerging industries.
Moco expects that the global lithium battery market will reach 450GWh in 2021, which is three times that of 150GWh in 2017. The average annual growth rate will remain above 30%. Corresponding to the Chinese market, the lithium battery market will reach 227GWh in 2021, and the global share will remain. At a level above 50%. In summary, "the challenge is still there, the future can be expected" Mo Ke told reporters.